Determinants of Road Traffic Accidents public health concern with road safety campaigns

Determinants of Road Traffic Accidents have become a major public health concern worldwide: However, unlike developed or high-income countries, many developing countries have made very little progress towards addressing this problem. Nonetheless, there are ways to strengthen the reduction of injured persons that will help to lower the toll from road traffic accidents. The purpose of this paper was to elucidate ways to accomplish these goals in the context of Lagos State, Nigeria. The result of the multiple regression analysis was 0.97. This implies that the proportion of variation in the dependent variable (i.e. road traffic accidents) explained by the independent variables (i.e. length of roads, presence of road safety and population) was 97%. The F-ratio of 276.41 was higher than the table value of 2.92 at 0.05 level of confidence. This shows that accidents significantly increase with increased length of roads (km), presence of road safety corps and population. Based on the findings recommendations were proffered on how to reduce the phenomenon of traffic accidents in Lagos State, Nigeria

Road accidents appear to occur regularly at some flash points such as where there are sharp bends, potholes and at bad sections of the highways. At such points over speeding drivers usually find it difficult to control their vehicles, which then result to fatal traffic accidents, especially at night (Atubi, 2009b). Cases of fatal road traffic accidents are reported almost daily on the major highways in Lagos State. Various categories of vehicular traffic are also involved in these fatal road traffic accidents in the state. Research in this area have focused on cases of road traffic accidents, collation of road traffic accident statistics and impact assessment of road safety campaign (OECD), 1994), Becker, 1996; C.B.N., 1997; Gozias et al, 1997 and Odero et al, 2003). At the local level research in this area are concentrated on the effects of land use and human factors on road traffic accidents (Onokala, 1995; Ogunjumo, 1995 and Omojola, 2004). Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death in adolescents and young adults (Taket 1986; Mohan and Romer 1991; Smith and Barss, 1991; Feachem et al, 1992; Atubi and Onokala, 2009) and of the estimated 856,000 road deaths occurring annually worldwide, 74% are in developing countries (World Bank, 1990 and Atubi, 2000b). 

Dramatic increases in the proportion and absolute number of traffic facilities have been witnessed in a number of developing countries, while they decreased by more than 20% in industrialised nations (Ross et al, 1991). In both Nigeria (Oluwasanmi, 1993; Ezenwa, 1986; Atubi, 2009b, 2009e and 2010c) and Kenya (NRSC, 1992), for example, a fivefold increase in traffic related fatalities was observed over the last 30 years. African and Asian countries, with relatively low vehicle densities, are experiencing substantially higher fatality rates per 10,000 vehicles than the industrialised European and North American States (Jacobs and Sayer 1983, WHO, 1984).

Traffic crashes also impact on the economy of developing countries at an estimated cost of 1-2% of a country’s GNP per annum, as a result of morbidity, mortality and property – related costs (Fouracre and Jacobs, 1976; Jacbos and Sayer, 1983; WHO, 1989; Jabaan, 1989a and 1990; Downing, 1991). Causes of motor vehicle crashes are multi-factorial and involve the interaction of a number of pre-crash factors that include people, vehicles and the road environment (Haddon, 1980; AMA, 1983; Stansfield et al, 1992; Robertson, 1992). Human error is estimated to account for between 64 and 95% of all causes of traffic crashes in developing countries (TRL, 1990; Atubi, 2009c). A high prevalence of old vehicles that often carry many more people than they are designed to carry, lack of ergonomics safety belt and helmet use, poor road design and maintenance and the traffic mix on roads are other factors that contribute to the high rate of crashes in less developed countries. Thirty-eight studies described casualties by the category of road-user. Pedestrian fatalities were highest in 75% of the studies accounting for between 41 and 75%, followed by passengers (38-51%) in 62% of the studies. Drivers were third in 55% of the studies, and never ranked first in any country.

Pedal and motorcyclists killed ranked first in India (Mohan and Bawa, 1985; Sidhu et al 1993) and Surinam (CAREC, 1987). Passengers ranked first amongst the non-fatal casualties reported in 14 studies. Pedestrians were second, with the exception of one hospital based study by Dessie and Larson (1991) in Addis Ababa that reported a very high proportion of pedestrians, accounting for 91% of all traffic casualties. Driver injuries were greater in Saudi Arabia (Bener and El-Sayyad, 1985; Ofosu et al, 1988), while motorcyclists were the most involved in Taiwan (Wu and Malison, 1990). A relatively high proportion of cyclist injuries in South East Asian countries, ranging from 39 to 63%, reflect the effects of traffic mix on the roads in the region. In Nigeria, road traffic accident situation over the last three decades has been particularly disturbing. In 1976, there were 53,897 road traffic accidents resulting in 7,717 deaths. Although in 1981, the magnitude reduced to 5,114 accidents, but the fatality increased to 10,236 which mean that there was an average of 96 accidents and 28 deaths for everyday of that year (Ogunsanya, 1991). The situation in subsequent years has not been any better. The number of people killed in road accidents between 1990 and 2005 rose from 28,253, and the fatality rate remains consistently high (Atubi, 2009c). International comparison indicates that the chance of a vehicle killing someone in Nigeria is 47 times higher than in Britain. The proportion of fatalities to injuries reported is also very high. For example, while Czech Republic has only one death in 175 accidents, France, one death in 175, South Africa, one death in 47 accidents, Nigeria has one death in 2.65 accidents (Atubi, 2010c).

Lagos State is a suitable case study because it hosts metropolitan Lagos, Nigeria’s major traffic centre, fastest growing city, and most heavily motorized urban area in the country. Consequently, the state has one of the highest accident and casualty rates in the country (Table 1: Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1997, p. 6). Moreover, the traffic situation in Lagos State is bad because of the absence of effective planning, vehicle-misuse, poor management, inadequate street parking, traffic congestion, delays and accidents among other contributory factors. Lagos State is situated in the South Western corner of Nigeria. This elongated state spans the Guinea Atlantic coast for over 180km, from the Republic of Benin on the west to its boundary with Ogun State in the east (figure 1), while Lagos State is the smallest in Nigeria, it has over 5 percent (i.e. 9,013,534) of the country’s estimated 140 million people (National Population Census, 2006).

Its rate of population growth has been in excess of 9 percent per annum, or 25,000 per month or 833 per day or 34 per hours in the last decade (Lagos urban Transport Project, 2002). This population increase has been accompanied by a corresponding increase in motor vehicles and traffic accidents. However, accident rates in Lagos State are still very much on the high side compared to other states in the federation. But, fatalities and non-survival indices for the state are on the decline. This is attributable to its high level of traffic congestion (which reduces the probability of the high fatality accidents resulting from over speeding) and accessibility to good post – crash medical care in the Lagos metropolitan area.

Traffic accident injuries and fatalities are a serious problem all over the world. In Nigeria, the incidence has become a very disturbing phenomenon as the country is presently ranked among countries with the highest traffic injuries and fatalities in the world (Jacobs et al, 1986; Onakomaiya, 1991; Daramola, 2004). Moreover, the country’s road safety campaigns are inadequate and often limited to festive seasons. At other times, such campaigns are often limited to media and roadside slogans like “drive carefully”, accident kill more passengers”, “drive to stay alive”, and only living celebrates”. For these campaigns to be effective, they must be year-round and not just limited to festive seasons.

Source DETERMINANTS OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT OCCURRENCES IN LAGOS STATE: SOME LESSONS FOR NIGERIA by ATUBI, AUGUSTUS .O. (PH.D)